Schenectady, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

364
FXUS61 KALY 031022
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
622 AM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure continues to bring dry conditions through
Wednesday night across eastern New York and western New
England. Summerlike temperatures are still on track for midweek
with seasonal temperatures this weekend. A low pressure system
returns increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms
Thursday through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high pressure continues today bringing dry conditions
to eastern New York and western New England. High temperatures
range in the 70s and 80s today. One forecast note that we have
been monitoring and has been of public interest is the potential
for a hazy look to the sky, haze well above the surface, due to
wildfires up in Canada. We look at near surface smoke from high
resolution forecast model data as well upper level flow that
could bring impacts. After taking a look, no visibility impacts
are expected and haze will stay well above the surface. What the
most likely scenario is if the upper level (above the surface)
winds are in a southerly direction, we could have a hazy look to
the sky and with few clouds tonight a hazy sunset could be
store. Low temperatures tonight range in the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure begins to head eastward Wednesday with
one more dry day and night in store. The heat returns with high
temperatures in the 80s and low 90s both Wednesday and Thursday.
While Wednesday will feel like the actual temperature outside,
a more humid air builds in for Thursday so the feels-like
temperature outside could be 5 to 8 degrees warmer especially
for valley locations. Low temperatures Wednesday night range in
the 60s. Thursday morning begins with 15 to 30 percent chances
for rain showers for locations north and west of Albany as an
approaching low pressure system moves over the Great Lakes
regions.

During the afternoon hours Thursday, the chances for showers and
thunderstorms increase to 40 and 60 percent ahead of a cold
front that moves through. Depending on environmental conditions,
a few of these thunderstorms could become strong to severe with
the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) highlighting locations north
of the Mid-Hudson Valley and Litchfield Hills in a Marginal
Risk for severe weather on Thursday. Primary hazards with any
developed thunderstorm is going to be gusty winds and lightning.
A few stronger to severe storms that could develop have primary
hazards being winds greater than 58 mph or small sized hail.
While we have a few of the ingredients needed for strong
thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon, convection could be limited
in areas due to how fast the front moves through, how stable we
are for environmental conditions, and exact timing of when
storms begin. There is still some uncertainty in exact
locations, so be weather aware on Thursday and have a plan to
move indoors if you are adventuring outdoors during the
afternoon and early evening hours.

By sunset, rain shower and thunderstorm activity diminishes and
a calmer weather evening is in store with clearing skies. Low
temperatures range in the 50s across the Adirondacks and in the
60s everywhere else.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will be approaching the area for Friday.  It will
continue to be warm and muggy ahead of this boundary, with valley
temps reaching into the 80s by the afternoon hours, along with
dewpoints in the 60s. Model soundings continue to suggest the
potential for a decent amount of instability, with SBCAPE values
over 1000 J/kg and 0-6 km bulk shear around 30 kts. With the
approaching surface front providing plenty of lift, there should
be showers and scattered thunderstorms on Friday, with some
strong storms possible. Machine-learning guidance also suggest
some storms capable of wind damage are possible over the region,
so will continue to monitor model trends.

The frontal boundary may stall over the area on Saturday, as a
wave of low pressure moves along the front. This will continue
the threat for showers and thunderstorms into Saturday as well,
although more widespread cloud cover and more limited
instability may keep the threat for stronger storms further
south and east on Saturday. Will continue to go with fairly high
POPs for Saturday, with max temps generally in the 70s.

Behind the front, more drier air is expected for the end of the
weekend into early next week, with dewpoints back down into the 50s
and temps in the 70s. A few lingering showers can`t be ruled
out on Sunday with the upper trough overhead. Another
disturbance may be approaching for early next week although the
timing of this feature is still rather uncertain at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Flying conditions are currently VFR to start the day with clear
skies in place and light to calm surface winds. No radiational
fog developed overnight due to a relatively dry boundary layer
and the short duration of the overnight hours.

During the day today, it will continue to remain VFR for all
sites with just few high cirrus clouds and no precip. Southerly
winds will be around 5 to 10 kts for all sites. It will remain
fairly clear with light to calm winds right into tonight as
well with continued VFR conditions. Won`t include any fog/mist
in the TAFs for tonight due to no expected rainfall and
dewpoints staying fairly low.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Webb
NEAR TERM...Webb
SHORT TERM...Webb
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis