Schenectady, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

101
FXUS61 KALY 222345
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
645 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winter Storm Warning has been converted to a Blizzard Warning
for Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield Counties, with a start time
of 21z. Combination of heavy snow and gusty winds will result in
very low visibility and dangerous travel conditions.

In addition, snowfall amounts on the northern edge have been
trimmed slightly due to newer guidance suggesting a tight
gradient in snowfall totals for the Capital Region and Mohawk
Valley. Amounts may still need to be reduced further, but will
wait for radar trends and short-term models to make further
changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A high impact Nor`Easter will bring heavy accumulating
snowfall and strong winds to parts of the area this evening
through much of Monday, which will result in difficult to
impossible travel conditions, blizzard conditions in Ulster,
Dutchess and Litchfield Counties, and possible downed trees and
power lines.

2) A fast moving low pressure area is expected to bring light
accumulating snowfall on Wednesday morning, which may impact
travel conditions during the commute.

3) Another storm system potentially could bring light to
moderate amounts of accumulating snow or a wintry mix Thursday
into early Friday with some uncertainty with the track and
timing of the system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Surface low (around 1003 mb) is located close to the Outer Banks
of North Carolina. This area of low pressure will be lifting
northward offshore the coast of the Delmarva for this evening
and will be passing east of New Jersey for tonight. It will
continue to track east-northeast for Monday, passing south of
southern New England. The storm is expected to rapidly deepen
and strengthen, as a large closed off upper level trough over
the Ohio Valley dives towards the storm system. The storm is
could become as strong as 970 mb by late Monday based off model
guidance, so this would be a significant cyclone near the
Northeast coast before it departs towards Atlantic Canada for
Monday night.

With the upper level shortwave to the west, some light snow has
already been ongoing across the region, but this has been very
light so far and not leading to much accumulation. With
widespread cloud cover and a light northerly flow in place,
temperatures area fairly cold, with values in the mid 20s to
low 30s. MRMS imagery already shows more organized precipitation
associated with the developing surface storm over south Jersey
and this is lifting northward. Based off the latest model
guidance, southern parts of the CWA will start to get into the
steadier snowfall by this evening (mainly after 00z). This
snowfall will try to work its way northward and looks to reach
the Capital Region and southern Vermont after midnight or so.
The steadiest and heaviest snowfall looks to occur for the late
night hours and into Monday morning, as the surface low tracks
closest to the area. There looks to be a heavy band of snow on
the northwest side of the surface cyclone and this looks to be a
pivoting band, with snowfall rates exceeding 2" per hour. It is
still unclear just how far north and west this band gets, but
the Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, Berkshires and NW CT are most
likely to see the high snowfall rates and heaviest amounts.
Snowfall should gradually diminish on Monday from west to east,
but may linger in the high terrain of western New England into
the evening hours.

Guidance continues to show totals in exceed of one foot across
southern areas, with some areas still over 16" for the highest
terrain of the Catskills. Litchfield County may see the highest
totals in our area as well being closest to the storm center.
Meanwhile, the northern fringe continues to be a difficult
forecast. Latest 12z guidance has trended lower in snowfall
amounts for the northern extent, with the best gradient staying
south and east of the Capital Region. Although Winter Storm
Warnings continue for the Albany area, amounts may be lower than
the previous forecast if this guidance is correct. Have lowered
totals in the Albany area to around 5", but it`s possible this
is even too high based on the latest HRRR. Some adjustments to
headlines on the northern side may be needed.

Meanwhile, the southern counties are expected to see heavy
snowfall and gusty winds reaching 50 mph will result in blowing
and drifting of snowfall. With enough periods of strong winds
expected along with the heavy snowfall, blizzard conditions are
expected for Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield Counties,
especially late tonight into Monday morning. Have upgraded to a
Blizzard Warning for these counties, with visibility under 1/4
mile expected for at least several hours within the heavy
falling snowfall. This will result in dangerous whiteout
conditions and impossible travel conditions. The strong winds
look late tonight into Monday, and much of the area will see
blowing snow with gusts over 30 mph at times. The wet snow,
combined with the gusty winds, could result in some downed tree
limbs and possible power outages as well.

While temps will generally be in the mid 20s to low 30s during
the storm, they will become colder for Monday night as the storm
departs. With the continued breezy conditions, this will result
in wind chill values near zero, especially for high terrain
areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A fast moving clipper system is expected to impact the region
for Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will be a northern stream
system and moisture is somewhat limited. The track of the
surface low looks to be north of the area, so this will limit
the overall precip. Still, a coating to an inch or two is
expected for many areas and this may make for slippery
conditions during the morning commute on Wednesday. Highs should
reach into the 30s on Wednesday for the entire area, so some
melting is possible during the afternoon.


KEY MESSAGE 3...

Another storm system will impact the region for late Thursday
through early Friday. There are some differences in the models
regarding the storm track and exact timing. This system will be
coming from the west and will have more moisture than the
previous storm system for Wednesday. Some guidance, including
the AI models, show a track south of the region, so much of the
precip could be snow, although some guidance does show a
changeover to mix or rain, especially southern areas. This
could have an impact on travel for Friday morning based on the
exact timing and amounts. For now, will lean close to the NBM
guidance during this time period, but NBM guidance already shows
over a 50% chance of at least 2" of snow for much of the area
at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00z Tuesday...Mainly MVFR conditions as of 6:45 PM EST, but
snow should reach POU within the next half hour to an hour. Once
snow begins, vsbys will quickly lower to IFR. SNow will begin
next at PSF closer to 2-4z, followed by ALB by 06z. GFL may not
see snow develop until late tonight, after 08z. Once snow
develops, mainly IFR to LIFR vsbys expected at all terminals.
Heaviest snow looks to be from around 06z tonight to 15z
tomorrow morning. Within this timeframe, fairly high confidence
for POU/PSF to see heavy snow with 1/4SM vsbys or less. While
the heaviest bands are expected to remain just southeast of
ALB, LIFR vsbys are possible here too late tonight/early
tomorrow morning if the band ends up just slightly west of the
current forecast.

Intensity of snow should start to diminish late tomorrow morning,
with snow tapering to snow showers during the afternoon. IFR vsbys
continue until snow ends, and even once snow ends blowing snow may
lead to continued MVFR vsby restrictions especially at POU/PSF
through 00z Tuesday.

Winds now are at 5-10 kt from the E/SE, but will increase to 10-20
kt from and veer to the N/NE overnight into tomorrow morning.
Strongest winds expected late tonight through tomorrow morning, when
gusts to 35-40 kt are possible. Winds turn mainly to the N/NW
tomorrow afternoon and evening, with gusts of 30-35 kt continuing.
Will mention LLWS for much of tonight and tomorrow at all terminals
as the low-level jet strengthens to 45-55 kt.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA...SN.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA...SN.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Blizzard Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for CTZ001-013.
NY...Blizzard Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ063>066.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ058>061.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
     Monday for NYZ039>041-050-082-084.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ047>049-
     051>054.
MA...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for MAZ001-025.
VT...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for VTZ013>015.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...35